ML Analysis — ST. JOSEPH MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 390096 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
6.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 13.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-22.1%, 34.5%]. P76 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2536102.129 | +0.1336 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2200669.053 | -0.0670 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1695735.369 | +0.0273 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.246 | -0.0138 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.883 | +0.0118 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
41.1%
Distress Risk
$6.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
15.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P39. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.669 | -0.133 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.013 | -0.076 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2536102.129 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.246 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.261 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 132.000 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.2M
Current margin: 13.2%
Projected margin: 15.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 105
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.246 | 0.348 | 10.3% | $4.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.726 | 0.836 | 11.0% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.669 | 0.754 | 8.5% | $562K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |