ML Analysis — LOWER BUCKS HOSPITAL
CCN 390070 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -14.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.6%, 17.9%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 606186.619 | -0.1358 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 695468.981 | +0.1185 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 147509.365 | -0.0241 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.186 | -0.0204 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.140 | +0.0177 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 32%Turnaround possible (32%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
53.1%
Distress Risk
$6.0M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-5.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P23. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.243 | +0.262 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.186 | -0.081 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.025 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 606186.619 | +0.057 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.224 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 105.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.0M
Current margin: -14.7%
Projected margin: -5.2%
Grade: C
Comps: 101
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.243 | 0.776 | 53.3% | $3.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.751 | 0.836 | 8.5% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.186 | 0.353 | 16.7% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |