ML Analysis — THE GETTYSBURG HOSPITAL
CCN 390065 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
68
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health20/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency15/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
20.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 18.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-7.7%, 48.9%]. P93 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4497284.355 | +0.4073 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3669452.224 | -0.2479 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 3207598.088 | +0.0774 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 76.000 | +0.0113 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.713 | +0.0107 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
39.2%
Distress Risk
$3.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
19.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P79. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.713 | -0.175 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4497284.355 | -0.172 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.019 | -0.069 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 76.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.375 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.380 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.2M
Current margin: 18.4%
Projected margin: 19.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 104
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.605 | 0.808 | 20.2% | $3.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.713 | 0.741 | 2.8% | $183K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |