ML Analysis — GRAND VIEW HOSPITAL
CCN 390057 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -26.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.2%, 20.3%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1312789.300 | -0.0372 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.193 | +0.0190 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.306 | -0.0071 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.031 | +0.0070 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 180.000 | -0.0049 | Bed Count has minimal effect |
Turnaround: 36%Turnaround possible (36%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
46.6%
Distress Risk
$4.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-23.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P30. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.031 | -0.058 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.577 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.306 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1312789.300 | +0.016 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.361 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 180.000 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.9M
Current margin: -26.0%
Projected margin: -23.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 100
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.608 | 0.854 | 24.6% | $3.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.577 | 0.760 | 18.2% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P34 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |