ML Analysis — READING HOSPITAL AND MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 390044 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
61
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.2%, 28.4%]. P62 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2045668.412 | +0.0651 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 561.000 | -0.0643 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.330 | +0.0454 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1921554.626 | -0.0326 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1634346.849 | +0.0253 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
40.8%
Distress Risk
$1.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
6.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P93. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.799 | -0.254 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.017 | -0.072 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 561.000 | +0.055 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.284 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2045668.412 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.262 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.0M
Current margin: 6.1%
Projected margin: 6.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 33
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.721 | 0.789 | 6.8% | $1.0M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |