ML Analysis — SOMERSET HOSPITAL
CCN 390039 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.5%, 23.1%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1518430.232 | +0.0171 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1473453.696 | -0.0148 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 56.000 | +0.0145 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.258 | -0.0124 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.025 | -0.0081 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.0%
Distress Risk
$2.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-0.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P43. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.593 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.258 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.157 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.062 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 56.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1473453.696 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.1M
Current margin: -3.0%
Projected margin: -0.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 85
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.258 | 0.381 | 12.3% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.593 | 0.738 | 14.5% | $956K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P43 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |