ML Analysis — ST. ANTHONY HOSPITAL
CCN 381319 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.0%, 26.6%]. P58 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3727506.120 | +0.2999 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3728068.600 | -0.2551 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1895002.837 | +0.0339 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.081 | -0.0264 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 47%Turnaround possible (47%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
47.2%
Distress Risk
$3.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
4.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P30. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OR distress rate: 65.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 3727506.120 | -0.127 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.471 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.508 | +0.016 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.075 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.396 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.8M
Current margin: -0.0%
Projected margin: 4.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 34
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.529 | 0.647 | 11.8% | $1.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.471 | 0.600 | 12.9% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.508 | 0.610 | 10.1% | $669K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P49 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |