ML Analysis — BAY AREA HOSPITAL
CCN 380090 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -37.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.2%, 14.4%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1224463.528 | -0.0495 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.081 | -0.0264 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.970 | +0.0138 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 539337.046 | -0.0111 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.175 | +0.0075 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
50.6%
Distress Risk
$6.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-33.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P14. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OR distress rate: 65.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.440 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.049 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.321 | -0.021 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1224463.528 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.405 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 144.000 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.2M
Current margin: -37.0%
Projected margin: -33.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 15
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.546 | 0.767 | 22.1% | $3.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.440 | 0.731 | 29.1% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.321 | 0.369 | 4.8% | $994K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P45 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |