ML Analysis — PROVIDENCE MEDFORD MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 380075 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
61
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside21/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -17.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.4%, 24.2%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2930373.000 | -0.1568 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2497476.969 | +0.1282 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2026990.511 | +0.0383 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.081 | -0.0264 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.812 | +0.0163 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 43%Turnaround possible (43%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
39.3%
Distress Risk
$3.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-15.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P56. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OR distress rate: 65.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.812 | -0.266 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.029 | -0.059 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2497476.969 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.321 | -0.021 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 96.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.328 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.8M
Current margin: -17.3%
Projected margin: -15.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 17
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.642 | 0.772 | 13.0% | $2.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.321 | 0.385 | 6.5% | $1.8M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P32 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |