ML Analysis — MERCY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 380027 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.9%, 22.7%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1900759.477 | +0.0449 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1940376.138 | -0.0349 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.081 | -0.0264 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.867 | +0.0115 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.292 | -0.0085 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.6%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
0.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P9. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OR distress rate: 65.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.037 | -0.052 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.292 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.558 | -0.030 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1900759.477 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.262 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 130.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: -2.1%
Projected margin: 0.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.292 | 0.400 | 10.8% | $3.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.558 | 0.724 | 16.6% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.702 | 0.772 | 7.1% | $1.1M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |