ML Analysis — ROLLING HILLS HOSPITAL
CCN 374016 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 16.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.3%, 23.3%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 369673.267 | -0.1689 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 307737.333 | +0.1662 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.955 | +0.0244 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 352978.889 | -0.0173 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$619K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
19.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.955 | -0.399 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.577 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 369673.267 | +0.071 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 60.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.362 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $619K
Current margin: 16.8%
Projected margin: 19.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 66
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.423 | 0.465 | 4.1% | $619K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |