ML Analysis — SSH - OKLAHOMA CITY INC.
CCN 372009 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 9.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.1%, 23.5%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 610276.847 | +0.1290 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 677509.417 | -0.1259 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.077 | +0.0358 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.923 | +0.0226 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
38.0%
Distress Risk
$1.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
12.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P90. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.923 | -0.370 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.168 | -0.089 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.006 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 677509.417 | +0.053 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.537 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 72.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.1M
Current margin: 9.9%
Projected margin: 12.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 60
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.168 | 0.355 | 18.7% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P35 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |