ML Analysis — INTEGRIS HEALTH EDMOND
CCN 370236 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.4%, 18.2%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.083 | +0.0340 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.176 | -0.0216 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.233 | -0.0175 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 77.000 | +0.0112 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Reimbursement Quality.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.6%
Distress Risk
$3.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-0.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P73. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.233 | +0.144 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.176 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 77.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.519 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.295 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1550255.182 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.5M
Current margin: -3.9%
Projected margin: -0.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 57
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.176 | 0.351 | 17.4% | $2.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.519 | 0.679 | 16.0% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P51 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |