ML Analysis — ST. JOHN OWASSO
CCN 370227 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.2%, 13.4%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 712135.426 | -0.1210 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 704222.148 | +0.1174 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 188868.745 | -0.0227 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.140 | +0.0176 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
57.1%
Distress Risk
$2.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
8.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P82. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.265 | +0.241 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.200 | +0.111 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.240 | -0.057 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 712135.426 | +0.051 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.215 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 54.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.8M
Current margin: 1.1%
Projected margin: 8.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 61
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.265 | 0.612 | 34.7% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.240 | 0.353 | 11.3% | $508K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P58 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |