ML Analysis — OKLAHOMA HEART HOSPITAL
CCN 370215 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
60
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
3.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-25.0%, 31.6%]. P70 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3525820.175 | +0.2717 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3624270.134 | -0.2423 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2703344.569 | +0.0607 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.137 | +0.0187 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 56%Turnaround possible (56%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
39.6%
Distress Risk
$3.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P70. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.767 | -0.224 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3525820.175 | -0.115 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.272 | -0.043 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.066 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.433 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 97.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.8M
Current margin: -2.8%
Projected margin: -1.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 43
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.272 | 0.361 | 8.8% | $3.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.767 | 0.800 | 3.3% | $219K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P32 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |