ML Analysis — OKLAHOMA SPINE HOSPITAL
CCN 370206 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.2%, 29.4%]. P65 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3436110.565 | +0.2592 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3148140.391 | -0.1837 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1749367.070 | +0.0291 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.135 | -0.0288 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.7%
Distress Risk
$3.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
12.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P20. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 3436110.565 | -0.110 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.001 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.205 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 23.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.509 | +0.015 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.358 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.0M
Current margin: 8.4%
Projected margin: 12.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 79
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.205 | 0.525 | 32.1% | $3.0M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P62 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |