ML Analysis — SURGICAL HOSPITAL OF OKLAHOMA
CCN 370201 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health0/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-18.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-47.1%, 9.5%]. P22 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2938178.083 | -0.1578 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2600819.083 | +0.1426 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.485 | -0.0439 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.096 | +0.0303 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 21%Low turnaround probability (21%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
56.5%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
1.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P83. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.137 | +0.360 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.188 | +0.099 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.182 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2600819.083 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 12.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.286 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: -13.0%
Projected margin: 1.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 22
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.137 | 0.564 | 42.7% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.182 | 0.648 | 46.5% | $1.7M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 36.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.6% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P2 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |