ML Analysis — BELMONT PINES
CCN 364038 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 16.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.5%, 20.1%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 421704.887 | -0.1616 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 351041.660 | +0.1609 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.543 | -0.0982 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 248641.299 | -0.0207 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$538K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
19.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.545 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.590 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 421704.887 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 53.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $538K
Current margin: 16.8%
Projected margin: 19.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 86
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.590 | 0.671 | 8.2% | $538K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |