ML Analysis — ARROWHEAD HOSPITAL
CCN 364036 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.5%, 20.1%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 201902.729 | -0.1923 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 189239.896 | +0.1808 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.414 | -0.0612 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 115333.477 | -0.0251 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.5%
Distress Risk
$509K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
11.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P70. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 201902.729 | +0.081 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.020 | -0.069 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.479 | +0.049 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.571 | -0.043 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.116 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 48.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $509K
Current margin: 6.3%
Projected margin: 11.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 114
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.571 | 0.648 | 7.7% | $509K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P28 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |