ML Analysis — DEFIANCE HOSPITAL INC.
CCN 361328 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
5.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 16.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-22.5%, 34.1%]. P75 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3142577.240 | +0.2182 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2616369.520 | -0.1182 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.2%
Distress Risk
$2.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
20.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P34. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.373 | +0.142 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3142577.240 | -0.092 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.035 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.330 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.281 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.8M
Current margin: 16.7%
Projected margin: 20.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 82
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.373 | 0.580 | 20.7% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.330 | 0.478 | 14.8% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.684 | 0.688 | 0.5% | $72K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P48 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |