ML Analysis — LODI COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 361303 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 37.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.2%, 29.4%]. P65 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 978891.250 | +0.0836 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.353 | -0.0435 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.996 | -0.0320 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 20.000 | +0.0201 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
41.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.368 | +0.145 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.325 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.523 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1574434.500 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.3M
Current margin: 37.8%
Projected margin: 41.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 69
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.368 | 0.543 | 17.5% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.675 | 0.684 | 1.0% | $144K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |