ML Analysis — AVITA ONTARIO HOSPITAL
CCN 360365 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
2.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 16.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.2%, 30.4%]. P67 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2228945.714 | +0.0907 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 1871685.755 | -0.0264 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 49.000 | +0.0156 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.892 | -0.0112 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.7%
Distress Risk
$3.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
19.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P21. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.352 | +0.161 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.015 | -0.074 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2228945.714 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.337 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 49.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.286 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.6M
Current margin: 16.0%
Projected margin: 19.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 106
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.352 | 0.654 | 30.3% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.337 | 0.451 | 11.4% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.699 | 0.707 | 0.8% | $115K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |