ML Analysis — CRYSTAL CLINIC ORTHOPAEDIC CENTER
CCN 360351 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -14.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.2%, 21.4%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3373945.136 | -0.2115 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2937054.814 | +0.1895 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Occupancy | 0.242 | -0.0161 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.236 | -0.0149 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
50.3%
Distress Risk
$7.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-10.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P57. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.243 | +0.262 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2937054.814 | -0.080 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.026 | -0.062 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.236 | -0.059 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 59.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.274 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.9M
Current margin: -14.9%
Projected margin: -10.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 90
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.236 | 0.444 | 20.8% | $4.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.243 | 0.671 | 42.9% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.699 | 0.753 | 5.4% | $811K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P60 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |