ML Analysis — PARKSIDE BEHAVIORAL HEALTHCARE ACQUI
CCN 360247 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
30
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.1%, 16.5%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 54440.960 | -0.2129 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 99834.680 | +0.1919 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.377 | -0.0506 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 13262.713 | -0.0285 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 30%Turnaround possible (30%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$2.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
49.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.244 | +0.261 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.123 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 54440.960 | +0.090 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.430 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.7M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: 49.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 109
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.244 | 0.655 | 41.1% | $2.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.430 | 0.452 | 2.2% | $7K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |