ML Analysis — ASHTABULA COUNTY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 360125 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.2%, 24.4%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1387219.314 | -0.0268 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1518430.867 | +0.0171 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.166 | +0.0102 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.284 | -0.0095 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 43%Turnaround possible (43%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.6%
Distress Risk
$5.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-5.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P18. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.436 | +0.083 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.043 | -0.046 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.284 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1387219.314 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.373 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 105.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.4M
Current margin: -9.5%
Projected margin: -5.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 99
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.585 | 0.750 | 16.6% | $2.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.436 | 0.693 | 25.7% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.284 | 0.355 | 7.1% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |