ML Analysis — UH PORTAGE MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 360078 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.4%, 23.2%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 907043.794 | -0.0938 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 941059.917 | +0.0882 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.193 | +0.0190 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 347894.908 | -0.0174 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.9%
Distress Risk
$4.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P46. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.384 | +0.131 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.235 | -0.059 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 907043.794 | +0.040 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.055 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.224 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 180.000 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.2M
Current margin: -3.8%
Projected margin: -1.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 78
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.384 | 0.727 | 34.3% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.235 | 0.308 | 7.3% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.721 | 0.757 | 3.5% | $529K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P29 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |