ML Analysis — HOLZER
CCN 360054 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 16.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.2%, 26.4%]. P57 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1145594.845 | +0.0630 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1378866.405 | -0.0280 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 387241.433 | -0.0161 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.997 | +0.0145 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
53.2%
Distress Risk
$3.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
18.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P49. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.281 | +0.227 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.032 | -0.057 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.335 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1378866.405 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.270 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 148.000 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.6M
Current margin: 16.9%
Projected margin: 18.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 89
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.281 | 0.695 | 41.4% | $2.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.698 | 0.757 | 5.9% | $886K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |