ML Analysis — UNION HOSPITAL ASSOCIATION
CCN 360010 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -15.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.0%, 22.6%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.289 | -0.0251 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1403827.610 | -0.0245 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 77.000 | +0.0112 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.016 | +0.0088 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
49.6%
Distress Risk
$2.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-12.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P16. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.016 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.453 | +0.067 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.417 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1403827.610 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 77.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.291 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.5M
Current margin: -15.1%
Projected margin: -12.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 99
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.453 | 0.673 | 22.1% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.693 | 0.760 | 6.7% | $1.0M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P37 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |