ML Analysis — SANFORD HILLSBORO
CCN 351329 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.5%, 17.2%]. P35 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 938471.812 | +0.0885 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 959935.438 | -0.0865 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.885 | +0.0579 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.093 | -0.0351 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
61.7%
Distress Risk
$2.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
20.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P70. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
ND distress rate: 69.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.885 | +0.230 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.388 | +0.127 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.187 | +0.098 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 959935.438 | +0.037 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.495 | +0.029 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.9M
Current margin: 2.2%
Projected margin: 20.8%
Grade: A
Comps: 37
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.319 | 0.500 | 18.1% | $2.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.388 | 0.408 | 2.0% | $129K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |