ML Analysis — ST ALEXIUS MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 350002 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -38.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.2%, 14.3%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2035436.178 | -0.0466 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.093 | -0.0351 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.056 | +0.0158 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1474083.879 | -0.0147 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.155 | +0.0134 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
50.2%
Distress Risk
$6.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-35.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P53. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
ND distress rate: 69.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.113 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.464 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.547 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1474083.879 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.366 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 157.000 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.4M
Current margin: -38.1%
Projected margin: -35.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 2044
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.423 | 0.756 | 33.3% | $5.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.547 | 0.750 | 20.3% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.366 | 0.368 | 0.1% | $39K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |