ML Analysis — CAREPARTNERS REHAB HOSPITAL
CCN 343025 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
3.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-24.6%, 32.0%]. P71 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1258321.338 | +0.0491 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.796 | +0.0480 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.361 | -0.0459 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1307635.608 | -0.0379 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.631 | +0.0332 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
47.4%
Distress Risk
$4.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
8.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P67. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NC distress rate: 36.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.792 | -0.248 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.796 | +0.191 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.031 | -0.058 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.516 | +0.032 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1307635.608 | +0.016 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 74.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.6M
Current margin: 3.8%
Projected margin: 8.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 51
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.453 | 0.757 | 30.4% | $4.6M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |