ML Analysis — ASHEVILLE SPECIALTY HOSPITAL LLC
CCN 342017 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -32.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.2%, 23.4%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 423195.735 | -0.1614 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 562254.324 | +0.1349 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.091 | +0.0318 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.526 | -0.0197 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.020 | +0.0188 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
3.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
NC distress rate: 36.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.774 | -0.231 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.664 | +0.058 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 423195.735 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.271 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 34.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: -32.9%
Projected margin: 3.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.336 | 0.670 | 33.3% | $5.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.271 | 0.420 | 15.0% | $252K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |