ML Analysis — PAM SPECIALTY HOSP. OF ROCKY MOUNT
CCN 342013 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 16.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.9%, 25.7%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 455605.120 | +0.1480 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 542756.420 | -0.1447 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.128 | +0.0212 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.020 | +0.0188 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.221 | -0.0165 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$2.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
24.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
NC distress rate: 36.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.714 | -0.175 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.423 | +0.016 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.221 | -0.066 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 542756.420 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.3M
Current margin: 16.1%
Projected margin: 24.7%
Grade: C
Comps: 55
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.577 | 0.700 | 12.2% | $1.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.221 | 0.384 | 16.2% | $515K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |