ML Analysis — BLUE RIDGE REGIONAL HOSPITAL
CCN 341329 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -16.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.5%, 22.1%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2032092.640 | -0.0462 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1746571.960 | +0.0234 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.020 | +0.0188 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
44.8%
Distress Risk
$1.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-12.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P47. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NC distress rate: 36.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.244 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.039 | -0.050 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.576 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1746571.960 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.311 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.7M
Current margin: -16.4%
Projected margin: -12.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 38
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.244 | 0.404 | 15.9% | $814K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.576 | 0.677 | 10.1% | $667K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.650 | 0.664 | 1.3% | $197K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P67 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |