ML Analysis — VIDANT EDGECOMBE HOSPITAL
CCN 340107 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.4%, 20.2%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 781146.419 | -0.1114 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 814965.838 | +0.1038 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 237352.908 | -0.0211 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.020 | +0.0188 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Occupancy | 0.304 | -0.0126 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 36%Turnaround possible (36%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
55.2%
Distress Risk
$5.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P42. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NC distress rate: 36.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.304 | +0.205 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 781146.419 | +0.047 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.074 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 117.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.377 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.311 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.0M
Current margin: -4.3%
Projected margin: 1.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 58
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.304 | 0.742 | 43.9% | $2.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.615 | 0.758 | 14.3% | $2.1M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P35 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |