ML Analysis — VIDANT ROANOKE CHOWAN HOSPITAL
CCN 340099 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.9%, 23.7%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1264514.829 | -0.0439 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1419259.271 | +0.0293 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.020 | +0.0188 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 70.000 | +0.0123 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.230 | -0.0083 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.1%
Distress Risk
$3.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-8.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P31. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NC distress rate: 36.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.584 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.058 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.411 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1264514.829 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 70.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.382 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.7M
Current margin: -12.2%
Projected margin: -8.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 51
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.561 | 0.750 | 18.9% | $2.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.584 | 0.713 | 12.9% | $852K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P37 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |