ML Analysis — DELAWARE VALLEY HOSPITAL
CCN 331312 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.7%, 12.9%]. P27 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1177191.640 | +0.0591 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1311454.720 | -0.0374 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.275 | -0.0211 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.6%
Distress Risk
$2.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
16.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P1. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.025 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.486 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.448 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1311454.720 | +0.016 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.361 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.1M
Current margin: 10.2%
Projected margin: 16.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 30
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.486 | 0.639 | 15.3% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.614 | 0.679 | 6.5% | $977K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.448 | 0.471 | 2.3% | $88K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P50 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |