ML Analysis — INTERFAITH MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 330397 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-25.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-53.9%, 2.7%]. P15 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 887801.405 | -0.0965 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.030 | +0.0152 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 586144.251 | -0.0095 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Medicaid % | 0.165 | -0.0092 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 14%Low turnaround probability (14%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
47.6%
Distress Risk
$4.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-46.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P79. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.660 | -0.125 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.165 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 887801.405 | +0.041 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.289 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.181 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 153.000 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.4M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -46.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 98
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.289 | 0.422 | 13.2% | $2.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.655 | 0.744 | 8.9% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.660 | 0.808 | 14.8% | $979K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P71 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P7 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |