ML Analysis — WOODHULL HOSPITAL CENTER
CCN 330396 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-17.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.8%, 10.8%]. P24 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2419102.168 | -0.0939 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2226528.336 | +0.0903 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.365 | -0.0471 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.472 | +0.0255 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 22%Low turnaround probability (22%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
52.2%
Distress Risk
$3.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-8.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P66. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.194 | +0.105 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.515 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.098 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2226528.336 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 238.000 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.513 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.0M
Current margin: -8.6%
Projected margin: -8.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 97
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.513 | 0.833 | 32.0% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.709 | 0.764 | 5.6% | $837K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |