ML Analysis — AUBURN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 330235 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.2%, 14.4%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 85.000 | +0.0099 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1524790.071 | -0.0076 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.036 | +0.0064 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.628 | +0.0059 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Bed Count.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.7%
Distress Risk
$3.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-6.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P23. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.628 | -0.096 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.036 | -0.053 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.384 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 85.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1524790.071 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.364 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.4M
Current margin: -8.8%
Projected margin: -6.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 63
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.580 | 0.738 | 15.8% | $2.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.628 | 0.734 | 10.5% | $696K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.364 | 0.389 | 2.5% | $379K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |