ML Analysis — ERIE COUNTY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 330219 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-17.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -22.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.4%, 11.2%]. P24 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 410.000 | -0.0408 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.016 | +0.0381 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.332 | -0.0375 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 1801432.754 | -0.0178 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 23%Low turnaround probability (23%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Bed Count.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.3%
Distress Risk
$479K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-22.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P56. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.814 | -0.268 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.037 | -0.052 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 410.000 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.172 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.420 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1474132.817 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $479K
Current margin: -22.2%
Projected margin: -22.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 68
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.814 | 0.886 | 7.3% | $479K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |