ML Analysis — OSWEGO HOSPITAL
CCN 330218 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-21.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -28.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-50.1%, 6.5%]. P19 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 934078.962 | -0.0901 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1198291.568 | +0.0565 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 282356.289 | -0.0196 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.261 | -0.0170 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 18%Low turnaround probability (18%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
53.7%
Distress Risk
$4.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-24.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P1. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.302 | +0.207 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.024 | -0.065 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 934078.962 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.286 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.378 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 132.000 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.6M
Current margin: -28.3%
Projected margin: -24.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 88
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.302 | 0.803 | 50.1% | $3.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.690 | 0.745 | 5.5% | $829K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.378 | 0.412 | 3.5% | $500K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P46 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |