ML Analysis — ROME MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC.
CCN 330215 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-18.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -20.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-47.1%, 9.5%]. P22 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1155874.228 | -0.0591 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1387919.139 | +0.0332 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.254 | -0.0129 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 504439.788 | -0.0122 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 21%Low turnaround probability (21%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
48.7%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-15.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P4. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.436 | +0.082 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.022 | -0.067 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.253 | -0.051 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1155874.228 | +0.025 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 79.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.299 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: -20.1%
Projected margin: -15.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 58
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.436 | 0.732 | 29.6% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.253 | 0.387 | 13.4% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.679 | 0.737 | 5.8% | $877K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P57 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |