ML Analysis — ST ANTHONYS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 330205 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 18.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.8%, 15.8%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1201527.250 | +0.0561 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.091 | +0.0318 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.156 | -0.0239 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1465678.017 | -0.0159 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.3%
Distress Risk
$6.5M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
25.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P19. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.364 | +0.150 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.156 | -0.095 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.029 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 60.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.387 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1465678.017 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.5M
Current margin: 18.0%
Projected margin: 25.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 41
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.156 | 0.396 | 24.1% | $2.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.584 | 0.729 | 14.4% | $2.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.364 | 0.649 | 28.6% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |