ML Analysis — WESTFIELD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 330166 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-32.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-61.0%, -4.4%]. P11 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3145939.500 | -0.1834 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 1.386 | -0.0694 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1976950.250 | +0.0555 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.102 | +0.0286 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 9%Low turnaround probability (9%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
46.7%
Distress Risk
$1.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-29.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P74. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.193 | -0.078 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.021 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.460 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1976950.250 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.452 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 4.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.6M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -29.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 0
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.460 | 0.680 | 22.0% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.193 | 0.380 | 18.7% | $173K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 42.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 94.8% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Average — predicted clean claim rate is near the median. |
| Net Collection Rate | 96.9% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |