ML Analysis — BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 330135 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-19.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -19.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-47.8%, 8.8%]. P21 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 763786.837 | -0.1138 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 909865.163 | +0.0921 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.087 | +0.0330 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.136 | -0.0261 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 20%Low turnaround probability (20%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
51.0%
Distress Risk
$6.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-10.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P0. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
| MEDICAL CENTER BARBOUR | AL | 30 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.361 | +0.152 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.136 | -0.104 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 763786.837 | +0.048 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.071 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 98.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.290 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.1M
Current margin: -19.1%
Projected margin: -10.9%
Grade: C
Comps: 73
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.361 | 0.734 | 37.3% | $2.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.136 | 0.389 | 25.3% | $2.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.639 | 0.736 | 9.8% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |