ML Analysis — UPPER ALLEGHENY HEALTH SYSTEM
CCN 330103 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-20.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -31.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-48.5%, 8.1%]. P21 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 756868.807 | -0.1148 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 992303.663 | +0.0819 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.308 | +0.0217 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 383751.887 | -0.0162 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 19%Low turnaround probability (19%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
50.7%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-28.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P4. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 756868.807 | +0.049 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.507 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.272 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.082 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 202.000 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.367 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: -31.1%
Projected margin: -28.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 98
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.507 | 0.826 | 31.9% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.646 | 0.746 | 9.9% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.367 | 0.420 | 5.2% | $937K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P37 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |