ML Analysis — NIAGARA FALLS MEMORIAL MEDICAL CENTE
CCN 330065 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-23.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-51.3%, 5.2%]. P18 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 624587.338 | -0.1333 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 965742.278 | +0.0852 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.318 | -0.0334 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 285191.120 | -0.0195 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 16%Low turnaround probability (16%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
51.2%
Distress Risk
$2.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-47.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P35. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.457 | +0.064 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 624587.338 | +0.056 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.048 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.188 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.416 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 133.000 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.3M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -47.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 88
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.457 | 0.803 | 34.7% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |