ML Analysis — ST. PETERS HOSPITAL
CCN 330057 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.6%, 13.0%]. P27 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 502.000 | -0.0551 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.219 | +0.0428 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1385738.213 | +0.0334 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1344726.620 | -0.0327 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 25%Low turnaround probability (25%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Bed Count.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
44.0%
Distress Risk
$12.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P53. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.699 | -0.161 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.027 | -0.062 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 502.000 | +0.047 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.281 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1344726.620 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.256 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $12.4M
Current margin: -3.0%
Projected margin: -1.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 59
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.281 | 0.417 | 13.6% | $10.7M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.699 | 0.879 | 18.0% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.717 | 0.748 | 3.1% | $464K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |