ML Analysis — CHENANGO MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 330033 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-20.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-48.6%, 8.0%]. P20 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1378727.621 | -0.0280 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1464344.259 | +0.0238 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 295283.469 | -0.0192 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.214 | -0.0177 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 19%Low turnaround probability (19%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
56.3%
Distress Risk
$5.5M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
0.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P59. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.214 | +0.289 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 58.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1378727.621 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.352 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.087 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.332 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.5M
Current margin: -6.2%
Projected margin: 0.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 39
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.214 | 0.644 | 43.0% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.581 | 0.726 | 14.5% | $2.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.352 | 0.398 | 4.6% | $428K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P59 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |